2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
Each year, we capture the predictions for the upcoming hurricane season from leading scientists and meteorologists around the country. Interstate Restoration regularly tracks natural disasters, helps businesses plan ahead, rebuild, and continue to stay informed about trends in the risk management and planning industry. Read more below on what is expected for the 2014 Atlantic hurricance season which is scheduled to be between June 1 and November 30.
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions
The Tropic Storm Risk (TSR) consortium, released their predictions for the 2014 hurricane season late last year, predicting a slightly above average hurricane season. The TSR is a group of experts in the climate forecasting industry, and risk and insurance agencies located at the University College London. Within their predictions for the hurricane season, TSR expects the season to have 10-18 named storms, of which 3-9 will be hurricanes, and 1-5 will be major hurricanes. Following a relatively quiet 2013 season, the team measures faster trade winds across the Atlantic and rising surface temperatures of the ocean as the causes for the above average season.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 106 means that this year will be within the lower 2004-2013 range of 102-129. At this time, the team is predicting 4 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes to touch the U.S. mainland.
The names for the 2014 tropical storms have also been released and this year the same list will be used as was in the 2008 season, with a few exceptions. For quick reference, the first 3 names for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will be Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal.
2013 Atlantic Hurricane Recap
Last year we brought to light the 2013 hurricane season predictions by Phil Klotzbach and William M. Gray (research authorities at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University). Read more about their 2014 predictions here.
In 2012, El Nino wasn't as much of a factor as some researchers had initially thought. As a result, the 2013 hurricane season was lighter than originally anticipated. As a matter of fact, 2013 was the first hurricane season since 1994 with no major hurricanes. It was also the first year since 1969 where there were no major hurricanes above a level 2.
The following storms were named in 2013:
- Andrea – a storm that stayed focused in Cuba, eastern US, and Atlantic Canada
- Barry – a small storm that blew through Belize and Mexico
- Chantal – a medium sized tropical storm that centered around Puerto Rico
- Dorian – the first storm to threaten The Bahamas and Florida
- Erin – a very small tropical storm that hit Cape Verde
- Fernand – the 2nd storm to hit Mexico, specifically Veracruz
- Gabrielle – the 2nd storm to hit Puerto Rico and part of Bermuda
- Eight – the smallest of the year, a Tropical Depression that hit Mexico
- Humberto – The first Category 1 hurricane of the season, hitting Cape Verde with 90 MPH sustained 1-minute winds
- Ingrid – The second Category 1 hurricane of the season, hitting Mexico, with 85 MPH sustained 1-minute winds. Both Humberto and Ingrid occurred within the same 3 week period
- Jerry – a small tropical storm that affected no major land regions
- Karen – a small tropical storm that affected the U.S. Gulf Coast
- Lorezno – a small tropical storm that affected no major land regions
- Melissa – The final tropical storm of the season that affected the Azores.
Note – the names Dorian and Fernand were used for the first time in 2013.
In summary, 2013 ended with 14 recorded cyclones that occurred from June 5 – November 22, with an average max 1-minute wind strength of 90 MPH.
Experts caution that although 2013 was a relatively light year for hurricanes, there's no reason to assume 2014 will be, too. Now is the time to prepare your business by creating an action plan that considers the risks associated with area-wide disasters.